Ateities tyrimai planetologijoje

Future studies in planetology

Future missions, telescope advancements, and theoretical models deepening our understanding

1. Introduction

Planetology thrives through the interaction of space missions, astronomical observations, and theoretical modeling. Each new wave of research – whether a probe visiting unexplored dwarf planets or advanced telescopes observing exoplanet atmospheres – provides data that compel us to refine old models and create new ones. Alongside technological achievements, new opportunities arise:

  • Far probes can explore distant planetesimals, icy moons, or the most remote edges of the Solar System, obtaining direct chemical and geophysical data.
  • Giant telescopes and next-generation space observations will better detect and study exoplanet atmospheres in search of biosignatures.
  • High-performance computing and advanced digital models integrate accumulated data, reconstructing the entire path of planet formation and evolution.

This article reviews the most significant missions, instruments, and theoretical directions that may shape the development of planetology in the coming decade and beyond.

2. Future and Current Space Missions

2.1 Inner Solar System Objects

  1. VERITAS and DAVINCI+: Newly selected NASA missions to Venus – high-resolution surface mapping (VERITAS) and atmospheric probe descent (DAVINCI+). They aim to reveal Venus's geological history, near-surface composition, and possible ancient ocean or habitability window.
  2. BepiColombo: Already en route to Mercury, with the final orbit insertion expected around mid-2020s; it will conduct detailed studies of Mercury's surface composition, magnetic field, and exosphere. By understanding how Mercury formed so close to the Sun, it also reveals the essence of disk processes under extreme conditions.

2.2 Outer Solar System and Icy Moons

  1. JUICE (Jupiter Icy Moons Explorer): An ESA-led mission to explore Ganymede, Europa, Callisto, revealing their subsurface oceans, geology, and potential habitability. Launched in 2023, it will reach Jupiter around 2031.
  2. Europa Clipper: NASA mission to study Europa, planned for mid-2020s launch. It will perform many flybys, investigating ice shell thickness, possible subsurface oceans, and searching for active plumes. The main goal is to assess Europa's habitability.
  3. Dragonfly: NASA's rotorcraft lander to Titan (Saturn's large moon), launch in 2027, arrival in 2034. It will fly between various surface sites, studying Titan's environment, atmosphere, and organic-rich chemical environment—possibly analogous to early Earth.

2.3 Small Bodies Continued

  1. Lucy: Launched in 2021, it will visit several Jupiter Trojan asteroids, studying remnants of ancient planetesimals.
  2. Comet Interceptor: An ESA project will wait at the Sun–Earth L2 point to catch a “fresh” or dynamically new comet approaching the Solar System, allowing a rapid flyby mission. This would provide an opportunity to study pristine ice from the Oort cloud.
  3. Uranus/Neptune orbiters (proposed): Ice giants remain poorly studied, only flown by Voyager in the 1980s. A future probe could study Uranus or Neptune, their structure, moons, and rings, important for understanding giant planet formation and ice-rich composition.

3. Next-generation Telescopes and Observatories

3.1 Ground-based Giants

  • ELT (Extremely Large Telescope) in Europe, TMT (Thirty Meter Telescope) (USA/Canada/partners), and GMT (Giant Magellan Telescope) in Chile will revolutionize exoplanet imaging and spectroscopy with 20–30 meter mirrors, adaptive optics instruments, and coronagraphs. This will help not only to detail Solar System body images but also to directly study exoplanet atmospheres.
  • Next-generation radial velocity spectrographs (ESPRESSO at VLT, EXPRES, HARPS 3, etc.) aim for ~10 cm/s precision, moving toward the search for “Earth twins” around Sun-like stars.

3.2 Space Missions

  1. JWST (James Webb Space Telescope), launched at the end of 2021, is already collecting detailed spectra of exoplanet atmospheres, improving understanding of hot Jupiters, super-Earths, and smaller T spectral analogs. Additionally, the mid-infrared range allows observation of dust and molecular signatures in planet-forming disks.
  2. Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (NASA, mid-2020s) will conduct a wide-field infrared survey, potentially detecting thousands of exoplanets through microlensing, especially in outer orbits. Roman's coronagraph instrument will test direct imaging technologies for giant planets.
  3. ARIEL (ESA, launch ~2029) will systematically study exoplanet atmospheres across various temperature and size ranges. ARIEL's goal is to investigate the chemical composition, cloud properties, and thermal profiles of hundreds of exoplanets.

3.3 Future projects

Proposed major projects for 2030–2040:

  • LUVOIR (Large UV/Optical/IR Surveyor) or HabEx (Habitable Exoplanet Imaging Mission) – next-generation space telescopes designed to directly image Earth-like exoplanets, searching for, e.g., oxygen, ozone, or other atmospheric gas imbalances.
  • Interplanetary CubeSats or smallsat constellations for cheaper multi-object studies, complementing large missions.

4. Theoretical models and computational breakthroughs

4.1 Planet formation and migration

High-performance computing enables increasingly complex hydrodynamic protoplanetary disk simulations. These include magnetic fields (MHD), radiative transfer, dust-gas interactions (streaming instability), and disk-planet feedback. This better models ALMA-observed ring and gap structures. It brings theory closer to real exoplanet diversity, explaining planetesimal formation, core accretion, and disk migration.

4.2 Climate and habitability modeling

Three-dimensional global climate models (GCMs) are increasingly applied to exoplanets, incorporating various stellar spectral features, rotation rates, tidal locking, and complex atmospheric chemistry. Such studies better predict which exoplanets could sustain surface water for long periods under different stellar irradiance and greenhouse gas mixtures. HPC climate models also help interpret exoplanet light curves or spectra, linking theoretical climate scenarios with possible observational signatures.

4.3 Machine learning and data analysis

With the huge amounts of exoplanet data from TESS, Gaia, and other missions, machine learning tools are increasingly used to classify candidates, detect subtle transit signals, or identify star/planet parameters in massive datasets. Similarly, machine learning analysis of Solar System images (from current missions) can detect signs of volcanism, cryovolcanism, ring arcs that traditional methods might miss.

5. Astrobiology and biosignature search

5.1 Life exploration in our Solar System

Europa, Enceladus, Titan – these icy moons are key for in situ astrobiological studies. Missions like Europa Clipper or potential Enceladus probes or Titan explorers could search for signs of biological processes: complex organics, unusual isotopes. Moreover, future Mars sample return projects aim to reveal the habitability of Mars' past more clearly.

5.2 Exoplanet Biosignatures

Future telescopes (ELT, ARIEL, LUVOIR/HabEx) plan to study exoplanet atmospheric spectra searching for biosignature gases (O2, O3, CH4, etc.). Observations at various wavelengths or temporal changes may indicate photochemical imbalance or seasonal cycles. Researchers will discuss false signals (e.g., abiotic O2) and seek new indicators (gas combinations, surface reflectance properties).

5.3 Multidimensional "Planetology"?

Gravitational waves regarding planets are currently a fantastic idea, but combining electromagnetic observations with neutrinos or cosmic rays could theoretically provide additional channels. A more realistic approach is to combine radial velocity, transits, direct imaging, and astrometry data to better study planetary masses, radii, orbits, and atmospheres – confirming the value of a multi-channel strategy in identifying habitable exoplanets.

6. Prospects for Interstellar Missions

6.1 Probes to Other Stars?

Although still theoretical, Breakthrough Starshot is exploring the possibility of sending small laser-driven sail probes to the Alpha Centauri or Proxima Centauri system to study exoplanets up close. There are many technological challenges, but if successful, it would revolutionize planetology beyond the Solar System.

6.2 Oumuamua-type Objects

The 2017 discovery of ‘Oumuamua and 2019's 2I/Borisov are interstellar passing objects marking a new era where we can observe temporary visitors from other star systems. Rapid spectroscopic study allows comparison of the chemical composition of planetesimals from other star systems – an indirect but valuable method for studying other worlds.

7. Synthesis of Future Directions

7.1 Interdisciplinary Collaboration

Planetology increasingly integrates geology, atmospheric physics, plasma physics, astrochemistry, and astrophysics. Missions to Titan or Europa require geochemical expertise, while exoplanet atmosphere models need photochemistry knowledge. The importance of integrated teams and interdisciplinary projects grows when processing multidimensional datasets.

7.2 From Dust Disk to Final Planetary Death

We can combine protoplanetary disk observations (ALMA, JWST) with exoplanet abundance (TESS, radial velocity) and Solar System sample returns (OSIRIS-REx, Hayabusa2). This way, we will review the entire scale from dust accumulations to formed mature planetary orbits. It will become clear whether our Solar System is typical or unique, thus giving rise to "universal" planet formation models.

7.3 Expanding Habitability Beyond the Classical Paradigm

More advanced climate and geological models can include unusual conditions: subsurface oceans in large icy moons, thick hydrogen envelopes allowing liquid water even beyond the traditional snow line, or tidally heated mini-worlds near small stars. As observational methods improve, the concept of "habitability" will expand far beyond the classical "surface liquid water" definition.

8. Conclusion

Future research in planetology finds itself at a very enticing point. Missions like Europa Clipper, Dragonfly, JUICE, and possible Uranus/Neptune orbiter concepts will open new horizons in the Solar System, deepening our understanding of ocean worlds, unusual satellite geology, and the origins of ice giants. Observational leaps (ELT, JWST, ARIEL, Roman) and the next generation of RV instruments will significantly enhance exoplanet searches: we will be able to systematically study smaller, more habitable planets and more precisely determine their atmospheric chemical compositions. Theoretical and computational advances will go hand in hand, encompassing HPC-driven formation simulations, detailed climate models, and machine learning methods for sorting large datasets.

Thanks to these joint efforts, we can expect answers to the remaining mysteries: how do complex planetary systems form from a dust disk? What atmospheric signs indicate biological activity? How often do Earth or Titan-like conditions occur in the Galaxy? Will we be able, with our or future generations' technologies, to send an interstellar probe to closely observe another planetary system? The future perspective of planetology will only grow, promising new insights into how planets and life itself arise throughout the cosmos.

Links and further reading

  1. Morbidelli, A., Lunine, J. I., O’Brien, D. P., Raymond, S. N., & Walsh, K. J. (2012). "Building Terrestrial Planets." Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 40, 251–275.
  2. Mamajek, E. E., et al. (2015). "Solar Nebula to Stellar Early Evolution (SONSEE)." In Protostars and Planets VI, University of Arizona Press, 99–116.
  3. Madhusudhan, N. (2019). "Exoplanetary Atmospheres: Key Insights, Challenges, and Prospects." Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 57, 617–663.
  4. Winn, J. N., & Fabrycky, D. C. (2015). "The occurrence and architecture of exoplanetary systems." Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 53, 409–447.
  5. Campins, H., & Morbidelli, A. (2017). "Asteroids and Comets." In Handbook of Exoplanets, ed. H.J. Deeg, J.A. Belmonte, Springer, 773–808.
  6. Millholland, S., & Laughlin, G. (2017). "Obliquity variations of hot Jupiters on short timescales." The Astrophysical Journal, 835, 148.
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